In the complex landscape of management, we often celebrate successes and analyze failures based on outcomes. The team exceeded their targets—great job! The project missed its deadline—what went wrong? But this outcome-focused approach misses a critical distinction that every thoughtful manager must recognize: the difference between succeeding because of your decisions and succeeding in spite of them.
The Results Illusion
As managers, we're trained to be results-oriented. This focus isn't wrong, but it can create a dangerous illusion. When good results occur, we naturally assume our decisions were sound. When poor results happen, we conclude our decisions were flawed.
This straightforward correlation is appealing but often misleading. The reality is far more nuanced—outcomes are influenced by countless factors beyond your control: market shifts, competitor actions, technological disruptions, team dynamics, and even plain luck.
Consider this scenario: You decide to launch a product without comprehensive market testing, skipping this step to beat competitors to market. The product succeeds spectacularly. Was this because your decision was brilliant, or did you succeed despite taking an unnecessary risk? Without honest evaluation, you might reinforce a dangerous precedent of skipping crucial steps based on a fortunate outcome.
The Decision Quality Matrix
To navigate this complexity, we need a framework that separates decision quality from outcome quality:
Good Decision / Good Outcome: The ideal scenario—your well-reasoned choice led to success
Good Decision / Bad Outcome: External factors derailed sound reasoning
Bad Decision / Good Outcome: Success happened in spite of poor judgment
Bad Decision / Bad Outcome: Poor reasoning led to predictable failure
The most dangerous quadrant is the third—bad decisions with good outcomes. These situations create false confidence and reinforce flawed decision-making processes, potentially setting the stage for future failures when luck doesn't intervene.
How to Evaluate Decision Quality
So how do you determine whether success came because of or in spite of your decisions? Consider these evaluation principles:
1. Focus on Process, Not Just Outcomes
Examine the steps you took to reach your decision. Did you:
Gather appropriate information?
Consider alternative perspectives?
Evaluate potential risks?
Follow established best practices?
A good decision process doesn't guarantee success, but it significantly improves your odds.
2. Identify Factors Beyond Your Control
Make a list of all external factors that influenced the outcome. Market conditions, competitor actions, unforeseen events, and other elements should be acknowledged. This helps separate your contribution from external influences.
3. Ask the Counterfactual Question
If you made the opposite decision, what likely would have happened? This thought experiment can reveal whether your decision truly drove the outcome or was largely irrelevant to it.
4. Seek Honest Feedback
Encourage your team to provide honest assessments of your decision-making process. Create psychological safety so they can tell you when you succeeded despite, not because of, your choices.
5. Document Your Reasoning
Before making significant decisions, document your reasoning, expectations, and assumptions. This prevents hindsight bias from clouding your evaluation later.
Teaching Your Team This Distinction
As a manager, your responsibility extends beyond making good decisions to helping your team develop sound decision-making skills. Here's how to instill this "in spite of vs. because of" mindset:
Reward good processes, not just good outcomes. Acknowledge team members who follow thorough decision-making processes, even when results are affected by factors beyond their control.
Create blameless post-mortems. When reviewing projects, focus on learning rather than assigning blame. This encourages honest evaluation of decisions separate from outcomes.
Share examples of "lucky" successes. Discuss situations where the team succeeded despite flawed decisions, emphasizing the learning opportunity rather than celebrating the outcome.
Model honest self-evaluation. When you make a poor decision that happens to work out well, acknowledge it publicly. This demonstrates the kind of reflection you want to see.
The Long-Term Advantage
Organizations that can distinguish between "because of" and "in spite of" success develop a significant competitive advantage. They:
Learn more quickly from experience
Take appropriate risks based on sound reasoning
Build more resilient processes
Make fewer repeated mistakes
Develop more confident and thoughtful decision-makers
In a business environment filled with uncertainty, the quality of your decisions may be the only thing truly within your control. By focusing on decision quality rather than just outcomes, you create a foundation for consistent, long-term success that doesn't depend on fortunate circumstances.
The next time you celebrate a win, pause to ask yourself the crucial question: "Did we succeed because of our decisions, or in spite of them?" Your willingness to answer honestly may be the most important decision you make.
Great read Brian. Echos a lot of what I read in Annie Duke's "Thinking in Bets".